Dragonbyte Blog

Risk Management - Time/Schedule Component

Risk management consists of identifying and crafting strategies to eliminate or avoid risk. Every project may have an element of risk, though processes, which are repeatable, can reduce the amount of risk. For example, in the application of cement to a ten square foot area, the time it takes for the cement to dry should be repeatable, if the quality of the cement is consistent, and the weather is constant at the correct temperature range.

Project schedules with repeatable processes may reduce the element of risk, but in the case of a new process, the duration of a certain task, might introduce a higher risk factor.

Task                                                                         Duration                                 Risk

Apply cement to 10 sq. feet (repeatable Process)              2 hours                                  Low

Apply cement to 10 sq. feet (never before used concrete)  2 hours                                Medium

If the contractor has never used the newest formula of concrete, though the duration is thought to be the same, the risk is slightly higher, since the new formula may cure faster, slower, pour faster, pour slower, etc. affecting the duration of the task.

If a higher risk task in on the critical path of the project (if it does not complete, the project can not continue), the project manager and team, must understand the ramifications of introducing new processes/tasks, and their duration, for proper schedule management.

Information technology project managers may struggle with the uncertainties of newer, integrated technologies in the creation of a risk managed project schedule. Listing the introduction of every new technology and process, while appearing time consuming, can provide the basis for a managed risk mitigation strategy and confident project schedule. 

Microsoft has been around since 1975. Adobe since 1982. As each company has grown through acquisitions, newer technologies for the desktop, and eventually the web have evolved.

A challenge to Adobe from Microsoft is the XML Paper Specification (XPS), a product designed to enhance the management and easy distribution of documents. Dubbed a "PDF killer" more than a year ago (see Microsoft's PDF-killer heads towards standards body), the XPS format is still supported by Microsoft, http://forums.microsoft.com/MSDN/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=2713760&SiteID=1.

Some information written on the internet suggests Adobe's complete lack of Vista support for older OS developed applications is a retaliation to Microsoft's further foray into the document management arena.

Past Adobe applications such as Dreamweaver 4, Dreamweaver MX, and Dreamweaver MX2004, running on operating systems as recent as XP with Service Pack 2, do not run on some versions of Vista (Vista Home Premium tested) seamlessly. It is possible other Macromedia applications may not completely execute.

Adobe may not have the resources to support the Macromedia suite (Dreamweaver, Flash, Fireworks, Freehand) with its focus on next generation web technologies such as Flex and AIR (http://labs.adobe.com/?ogn=EN_US-gntray_comm_labs) or the desire, completely unrelated to Vista.

For the loyal following of developers familiar and entrenched with the Macromedia suite, understanding the possible incompatibilities of Vista with previous versions should be part of the cost of upgrading to Vista.

For those using Dreamweaver MX on Vista Home Premium:

Go to Control Panel \ Programs \ Use an older program with this version of Windows and install the application under an operating system it worked on before, for example XP Service Pack 2. For the author is was necessary to select Windows 98/ME to use the Insert Table function of Dreamweaver MX.

Intel Researching Tera FLOPS(Floating Point Operations Per Second) on a single chip

Intel, as many other technology innovators, supports continual research and development. The Teraflops Research Chip is an example of Intel's attempt to innovate while conserving energy.

The Teraflops Research Chip performs over 1 trillion FLOPS using only 62w of power. Compare to the previous execution of a Teraflop in 1996 by the ASCII Red system at 500kW of power and the potential for multi-core processors in devices could lead to further miniaturization possibly shrinking the computer so it could reside in the ubiquitous cell phone.

Click herefor the article. 

Risk Analysis

Every project has an element of chance. The identification of the prioritized possible risks and investigated solutions increases the likelihood of a successful project completion.

The uncertainty of possible outcomes can have a dollar value assigned.  For example, the installation of a critical building component in a remote call center, such as a working heating and air conditioning system, are possible risks to the opening of a new facility on time.

Possible solutions to the risk are:

1.      Identifying an experienced HVAC contractor with prior installation successes

2.      Budget contingency for shipping in case the HVAC installation is delayed because of newer transportation logistics

3.      Do not build the new facility.

Yes, not doing a project is a risk solution and has its own associated costs.

Companies with governance controls such as banks, insurance companies, and public utilities often must weigh the risk of engaging in projects while budgeting for government mandated changes. 

A simple technique for risk management is Brainstorming, where a team is facilitated by a leader encouraging the flow of ideas without limitations.  The team would agree to reject suggestions at a later session. Business and technical team members with diverse backgrounds benefit and the "crazy" ideas may lead to an agreeable cost savings solution.

There are other risk management techniques such as Monte Carlo, Delphi Method, and Probability Method and so on.

We identify risks in our own life and select the solutions to minimize the risk, oftentimes with the least cost. An example is the use of public transportation to commute to work.  Many times using public transportation is less expensive than driving a car, with a much lower incidence of accidents contributing to lower medical costs.

In another installment the time management of risks will be discussed.